FundedKeys

Manage the loss first

In trading, the first job is to manage the loss: every firm ends your account at a set loss. Start from how many losing trades in a row you can take, then see what it takes to reach the target. The account's own rules, your numbers: a calculation, not a promise.

Your three numbers

Risk a trade$5003.33 lots EUR/USD (15 pip stop)
Your day
  • stop after 2 losses
  • stop at −$2,500
The odds76%reach the target · typical 64 days

Today

FTMO 2-Step FTMO Challenge $100K
Trades at most3
Risk a trade$5003.33 lots EUR/USD (15 pip stop)
Stop at−$1,000after 2 losses in a row

Before each trade

FTMO 2-Step FTMO Challenge $100K

Advanced blocks hidden

Your real capital is $10,000, not $100,000: 10 losing trades in a row end your day, 20 end the account. Size every trade so a normal losing streak cannot reach those limits, and stop for the day before the firm stops you.

The loss side

your edge: +0.13R · $63 a trade on average
Losing trades in a row to hit the daily limit
10$5,000 ÷ $500

Your own limits stop you first: after 2 losses in a row, or 5 losses ($2,500).

Losing trades in a row to lose the account
20$10,000 ÷ $500

From the starting balance, on a static floor.

Expect a run of
8 losses· 1 in 10 runs sees 11

Over a typical run of 197 trades at a 55% loss rate, a losing streak of 8 or more happens in 52% of runs and one of 11 or more in 11%. The account ends at 20 losses in a row.

Losses in a rowAll lose nextIn a dayIn 100 tradesIn a typical run
2 · Your stopends the day by your choice30%44%100%100%
10 · Daily loss limitthe firm ends the day0.3%—10%20%
20 · Max drawdownthe account is lost1 in 155,864—1 in 4,2131 in 1,933

“All lose next” is the chance that the coming trades are all losers. The other three columns are the chance that such a streak happens at least once: in a day of 3 trades, in 100 trades, and in a typical run of 197 trades (the simulation's median), the streak that ends accounts. All are exact, from your win rate.

The gain side

2 phases · $750 a win
Winning trades to reach the target
2114 × $750 (phase 1) + 7 × $750 (phase 2)

Net of losses it takes more trades: the simulation counts them.

Reached before losing the account
76%of 10,000 runs

Trade by trade at your win rate, under the firm's rules and your limits.

Winning trades in a rowChance in a rowWhat it means
14 wins of $7501 in 71,618the first target in one go: the one-day rush
21 wins of $7501 in 19,166,253every phase in one go
7 wins of $7500.4%half of the first target in one go

Consistency

FTMO states no consistency rule on this account: one strong day can count in full.

10,000 simulated challenges with your numbers

same seed every time

Assumes a fixed stop (−$500) and target (+$750), independent trades at a 45% win rate, the same size every trade, $0 of costs a trade, no slippage; FTMO's rules as published, checked Oct 1, 2026.

What this does not model

Variable R (stops and targets that move) · partial exits · news gaps · slippage · correlated trades · the firm's discretion · taxes.

Reached the target 76.3%Daily limit hit 0.0%Max drawdown hit 5.1%Blocked by consistency 0.0%Still trading after 120 days 18.6%
Median days to pass644 minimum
9 in 10 pass within103 daysof the runs that pass
Expected cost to get funded$8031.3 accounts bought per pass · retries at the full price
Typical run197 tradesuntil pass, fail or 120 days
Buying 1 account
At least one passes76%the chance one account passes
Funded on average0.76the share of attempts that pass
Total cost$6131 × $613.17
Cost per funded account$803the total ÷ the accounts that pass

The same strategy copied onto several accounts shares one outcome: they pass or fail together, so the odds above do not improve. Trading opposite sides across accounts to push one through (“hedged passing”) is prohibited by the firms that state a rule on it, and this planner never suggests it.

These figures treat each account as its own attempt, the best case, with the chance of one attempt from the simulation above. Each account is bought once: resets are not counted.

Copies plan A into plan B: change a number of B and read both columns.
50 runs and where 80% of all runs stand, day by day
passedmax drawdowndaily limitblocked by consistencystill trading80% of runsmedian
Days to pass

Every rule this planner applies is published for this account. Other rules (news trading, time limits, a minimum profit for a day to count, scaling) are not simulated: read the firm's own page.

After you pass

FTMO Account (from the 2-Step Challenge)

Funded from a fresh start, with your numbers: 10,000 runs trade until the first payout can be asked for, the account is lost, or 120 days pass.

Reach a first payout98%of 10,000 funded runs, within 120 days
Median days to it15needs $20 of profit and 14 days since the first trade
Lost before it2.0%floor or daily limit hit
Still waiting0.0%no payout after 120 days
First payout, net$2,000all of the profit × 80% split · at $2,500 of profit
Payouts to repay the price1$613 paid for the account
Timeline, in days
  1. Passday 64
  2. First payoutday 79
  3. Second payoutinterval not published
What this stage publishes
Profit split
80%, rising to 90% in tiers
Payouts
14 days after the first trade
Minimum payout
$20
Consistency
None
Funded account
daily loss $5,000

Not published by the firm, so left out of this run: the payout cap (a request may take all the profit). A day here is a trading day, counted as one day of the firm's own day rules.

Cost to get funded

price, resets, fee after passing
Expected cost
$803

1.3 attempts on average: $613.17 for the first, $613.17 for each of the others

Budget for 2 attempts
$1,226

Nine times in ten one of these 2 attempts passes: $613.17 for the first, then $613.17 each time

The firm publishes no reset price: each attempt after the first is counted at the full price again, $613.17.

Ways to size, compared

your plan 10,000 runs · the others 5,000 each
Way to sizeReachedAccount lostDaily limit hitMedian days
Same size every tradeyour plan as set76.3%5.1%0.0%64
Half size near the floorwhen less than a third of the drawdown is left75.7%2.8%0.0%64
Half size after 2 lossesback to full size after a win67.4%2.8%0.0%72
Build a buffer firsthalf size until up half the drawdown35.5%0.0%0.0%92

The same trades, sized four ways. Half size when the floor gets close is the most common advice: it trades a little speed for fewer lost accounts. The best figure of each column is in accent.

If you risked…

your row 10,000 runs · the others 2,000 each
Risk a tradeReachedAccount lostMedian daysCost to get funded
1% of the drawdown$100 a trade0.0%0.0%——
2.5% of the drawdown$250 a trade23.9%0.1%95$2,560
5% of the drawdownyour plan$500 a trade76.3%5.1%64$803
7.5% of the drawdown$750 a trade80.8%15.9%42$759
10% of the drawdown$1,000 a trade73.2%26.5%28$838

The same win rate, reward, stops and rules at other sizes of risk: only the risk changes. Your own row is the simulation above; the best figure of each column is in accent.

The drawdown floor

static
Static floor: the account ends at −$10,000 from the starting balance, and that line never moves.

Rushing against your plan

the same win rate and reward
MeasureYour planRushing
Risk per trade5.0% of the drawdown · $500100% of the drawdown · $10,000
Your limitsonnone
Reached76.3%0.0%
Daily limit hit0.0%100.0%
Account lost5.1%0.0%
Expected cost to get funded$803 · 1.3 accounts bought per pass$3,065,850 · about 1 pass in 5,000 accounts

Rushing sizes each trade so an average day makes the first target in one session ($10,000 in 3 trades, capped here at your whole drawdown: one loss ends the account). This account needs 4 trading days anyway. Same win rate, same reward: only the size and the limits change.

Kelly and the risk of ruin

what the formulas say
Full Kelly8.3% · $833
Half Kelly4.2% · $417
Quarter Kelly2.1% · $208
Your risk5.0% · $500

Kelly = win rate − loss rate ÷ reward = 0.45 − 0.55 ÷ 1.5 = 8.3% a trade, applied here to your real capital, the $10,000 drawdown. Full Kelly grows fastest with deep swings on the way; most traders use a quarter to a half of it. You are at 0.6 Kelly: above half, losing runs get long.

Risk of ruin, trading on forever
3.7%

The chance a losing run eats the whole drawdown (20 losses of room) if you traded these numbers without end, on one account.

Lost before the target, simulated
5.1%

The real figure for this account: its daily limit, its 2 phases (each a fresh drawdown) and its targets included.

Risk of ruin ≈ e^(−r × U), where U is the losses of room (the drawdown ÷ the risk of one trade) and r solves p · e^(−r × reward) + q · e^(r) = 1 (p the win rate, q the loss rate). Kelly and ruin assume trades of the same size, one after another.

My plan

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MY PLAN · FTMO 2-Step FTMO Challenge $100K
Risk per trade: 5.0% of the $10,000 drawdown ($500) · reward 1.5R · win rate 45% (my estimate)
Position: 3.33 lots EUR/USD (15 pip stop)
Stop for the day: after 2 losses in a row or at −$2,500
Stop for the day when up: no cap
The firm ends the day after 10 losses in a row, the account after 20 losses in a row (1 in 1,933 over a typical run)
Simulated with these numbers: 76% reach the target, median 64 days
Rules from ftmo.com, checked Oct 1, 2026 · fundedkeys.com/tools/risk-planner

The card is this plan's share image: posted in Discord, Telegram or X, the link opens this exact plan.

Each run trades your numbers under the account's rules: its daily loss limit, its max drawdown (static, trailing, end of day or locking at the starting balance as the firm states it), its targets, its minimum days and its consistency rule, and under your own limits. A rule the firm does not publish is left out and named. Rules of the accounts are data of Oct 5, 2026. A calculation, not a promise. Check your own days in the consistency calculator

Eight money-management rules for a funded account

The same plan in words, with the numbers of the account above (FTMO 2-Step FTMO Challenge $100K): a $100K account whose real capital is $10,000. A calculation, not a promise.

  1. Size from the drawdown, not the account

    The money you can lose is the max drawdown, not the account size: $10,000 of real capital on a $100,000 account. Risk a fixed share of it on every trade: 5.0% is $500 and leaves room for 20 losing trades in a row.

  2. Know your losing streak before you trade

    Losses come in runs. At a 45% win rate, 2 losses in a row happen on 44% of days of 3 trades, and the 20 that end the account have a 1 in 1,933 chance over a typical run of 197 trades. Know both numbers.

  3. Set your own daily loss limit below the firm's

    The firm's daily loss limit is where it stops you; yours should come first. $2,500 (25% of the drawdown) is 5 losses at this size, against 10 for the firm.

  4. Stop for the day after a short losing streak

    Stopping after 2 losses in a row ends a bad day early, before it becomes the day the firm ends. The simulation applies it as your own limit.

  5. Cap a winning day where a consistency rule applies

    Many firms cap the best day at a share of the total profit: from 15% to 52% on the accounts here. A day that makes much more than the others slows the pass or the payout: stop for the day when you are up, and let the total profit dilute your best day.

  6. Do not rush the target

    Sizing up to make the target in one day is the fastest way to lose the account: at $10,000 a trade (100% of the drawdown) the simulated chance to reach the target is 0.0%, against 76.3% for the plan above.

  7. Respect the floor

    A static floor never moves; the room you have is the same $10,000 every day. Half size when the floor gets close trades a little speed for fewer lost accounts: here 5.1% of runs lose the account at the same size every trade, 2.8% at half size near the floor.

  8. Price the failures, and run the plan again when the rules change

    At 76.3% of runs reaching the target, an account costs about $803 per pass on a $613 purchase. Firms change their rules: check the date of the rules, run the plan again, and remember that a simulation is a calculation, not a promise.

How the numbers are made

Losing and winning streaks are exact, from your win rate (a small dynamic program, no simulation). The simulation runs 10,000 challenges trade by trade with a fixed seed, under the account's own daily loss limit, drawdown floor, targets, minimum days and consistency rule, and under the limits you set; the same inputs always print the same figures. Position sizes use the exchange's contract values for futures and the usual lot sizes for forex. Every rule comes from the firm's own pages, with its date.

Rules by account: consistency calculator · methodology

Data: 1,109 instant and evaluation accounts from 38 firms, rules checked up to Oct 5, 2026.

Risk calculators by firm

One page for each of the 38 firms, opened on its $100K account with the lowest real cost (its largest account where it has none), with that account's own rules and figures.