Alpha Futures risk calculator
Size every trade on the Alpha Futures Standard $100K from its real capital: the $3,000 max drawdown, not the $100K account. See how many losing trades end the day and the account, then run your plan 10,000 times under Alpha Futures' own rules.
Your three numbers
- stop after 2 losses
- stop at −$500
- stop when up +$400
Today
Alpha Futures Direct $50KBefore each trade
Alpha Futures Direct $50KYour real capital is $2,000, not $50,000: 10 losing trades in a row end your day, 20 end the account. Size every trade so a normal losing streak cannot reach those limits, and stop for the day before the firm stops you.
The loss side
your edge: +0.13R · $13 a trade on averageYour own limits stop you first: after 2 losses in a row, or 5 losses ($500).
End of day: the floor rises with your best closing balance, so after a run of winning days it takes fewer.
The longest losing streak to expect is worked out once the simulation has run: it needs the length of a typical run.
| Losses in a row | All lose next | In a day | In 100 trades | In a typical run |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 · Your stopends the day by your choice | 30% | 44% | 100% | — |
| 10 · Daily loss limitthe firm ends the day | 0.3% | — | 10% | — |
| 20 · Max drawdownthe account is lost | 1 in 155,864 | — | 1 in 4,213 | — |
“All lose next” is the chance that the coming trades are all losers. The other columns are the chance that such a streak happens at least once: in a day of 3 trades and in 100 trades. The typical run is known once the simulation has run. All are exact, from your win rate.
The gain side
goal $2,500 · $150 a winNet of losses it takes more trades: the simulation counts them.
Trade by trade at your win rate, under the firm's rules and your limits.
| Winning trades in a row | Chance in a row | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| 17 wins of $150 | 1 in 785,936 | the first target in one go: the one-day rush |
| 9 wins of $150 | 1 in 1,322 | half of the first target in one go |
Consistency
best day ≤ 20% of the profit for a payout$2,500 × 20%: past it, that day is too big.
At 20%, no single day can carry the goal.
80% of the most allowed: room for smaller days.
Enter your best day and your total profit.
10,000 simulated runs to your payout goal
same seed every timeAssumes a fixed stop (−$100) and target (+$150), independent trades at a 45% win rate, the same size every trade, $0 of costs a trade, no slippage; Alpha Futures' rules as published, checked Sep 27, 2026.
What this does not model
Variable R (stops and targets that move) · partial exits · news gaps · slippage · correlated trades · the firm's discretion · taxes.
Updating the simulation…
Your first payout
DirectUpdating the simulation…
Cost to reach your goal
price, resets, fee after passingUpdating the simulation…
Ways to size, compared
your plan 10,000 runs · the others 5,000 eachUpdating the simulation…
If you risked…
your row 10,000 runs · the others 2,000 eachUpdating the simulation…
The drawdown floor
end of day, locks at the starting balanceIt follows your end-of-day best balance, $2,000 below it, until it reaches the starting balance.
About 54 days at your average day ($38). Until then, a losing run after a good day costs twice: trade half size until it locks (“Build a buffer first” above).
Rushing against your plan
the same win rate and rewardUpdating the simulation…
Kelly and the risk of ruin
what the formulas sayKelly = win rate − loss rate ÷ reward = 0.45 − 0.55 ÷ 1.5 = 8.3% a trade, applied here to your real capital, the $2,000 drawdown. Full Kelly grows fastest with deep swings on the way; most traders use a quarter to a half of it. You are at 0.6 Kelly: above half, losing runs get long.
The chance a losing run eats the whole drawdown (20 losses of room) if you traded these numbers without end, on one account.
The real figure for this account: its daily limit and its targets included.
Risk of ruin ≈ e^(−r × U), where U is the losses of room (the drawdown ÷ the risk of one trade) and r solves p · e^(−r × reward) + q · e^(r) = 1 (p the win rate, q the loss rate). Kelly and ruin assume trades of the same size, one after another.
My plan
keep it beside your chart, share it
MY PLAN · Alpha Futures Direct $50K Risk per trade: 5.0% of the $2,000 drawdown ($100) · reward 1.5R · win rate 45% (my estimate) Position: 2 MNQ (20 points stop) Stop for the day: after 2 losses in a row or at −$500 Stop for the day when up: $400 (consistency 20%) The firm ends the day after 10 losses in a row, the account after 20 losses in a row Simulated with these numbers: still computing Rules from alpha-futures.com, checked Sep 27, 2026 · fundedkeys.com/tools/risk-planner
The card is this plan's share image: posted in Discord, Telegram or X, the link opens this exact plan.
Each run trades your numbers under the account's rules: its daily loss limit, its max drawdown (static, trailing, end of day or locking at the starting balance as the firm states it), its targets, its minimum days and its consistency rule, and under your own limits. A rule the firm does not publish is left out and named. Rules of the accounts are data of Oct 5, 2026. A calculation, not a promise. Check your own days in the consistency calculator
Alpha Futures risk questions, answered from its rules
How much should I risk per trade on Alpha Futures' $100K account?
Risk a share of the $3,000 max drawdown, not of the $100K: that $3,000 is what the Alpha Futures Standard $100K can lose before it ends, so it is your real capital. At 5% of it a trade risks $150 (0.15% of the account); 2.5% is $75 and 10% is $300. With a 45% win rate and rewards of 1.5R, 60% of 10,000 simulated runs reach the target and 11% lose the account. A calculation, not a promise.
How many losing trades in a row end the day or the account on Alpha Futures' $100K account?
Alpha Futures states no daily loss limit on this account, so only the max drawdown ends it: at 5% of the drawdown a trade ($150), 20 losses in a row reach the $3,000 max drawdown. End of day: the floor rises with your best closing balance, so after a run of winning days it takes fewer. Over a typical run of 249 trades at a 55% loss rate, a losing streak of 8 or more happens in 61% of runs and one of 11 or more in 14%; a streak of 20 has a 1 in 1,498 chance of happening in such a run.
Does Alpha Futures have a time limit or a consistency rule on the $100K account?
Alpha Futures does not publish a time limit for the Alpha Futures Standard $100K. To pass, the best day may make at most 50% of the profit. At least 2 trading days are required.
What does Alpha Futures' $100K account cost to get funded, with retries?
The Alpha Futures Standard $100K costs $215 (with code PFK, −10% · list $239). The firm states no fee after passing. At the opening plan (5% of the drawdown a trade, 45% wins, 1.5R), 60% of attempts reach the target: 1.7 accounts bought per pass. Counting each retry at $199 (retries at the $199 reset), the expected cost is $349, and $613 covers 3 attempts, enough to be funded nine times in ten. It is a monthly plan: it bills again each month, and these figures count the first month only.
Rules and sources: Alpha Futures review · Risk planner for every firm · consistency calculator · methodology