Blue Guardian risk calculator
Size every trade on the Blue Guardian 2 Step Nano $100K from its real capital: the $10,000 max drawdown, not the $100K account. See how many losing trades end the day and the account, then run your plan 10,000 times under Blue Guardian's own rules.
Your three numbers
- stop after 2 losses
- stop at −$500
- stop when up +$400
Today
Blue Guardian Direct $50KBefore each trade
Blue Guardian Direct $50KYour real capital is $2,000, not $50,000: 13 losing trades in a row end your day, 20 end the account. Size every trade so a normal losing streak cannot reach those limits, and stop for the day before the firm stops you.
The loss side
your edge: +0.13R · $13 a trade on averageYour own limits stop you first: after 2 losses in a row, or 5 losses ($500).
End of day: the floor rises with your best closing balance, so after a run of winning days it takes fewer.
Over a typical run of 149 trades at a 55% loss rate, a losing streak of 7 or more happens in 65% of runs and one of 10 or more in 15%. The account ends at 20 losses in a row.
| Losses in a row | All lose next | In a day | In 100 trades | In a typical run |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 · Your stopends the day by your choice | 30% | 44% | 100% | 100% |
| 13 · Daily loss limitthe firm ends the day | 1 in 2,373 | — | 1.7% | 2.6% |
| 20 · Max drawdownthe account is lost | 1 in 155,864 | — | 1 in 4,213 | 1 in 2,640 |
“All lose next” is the chance that the coming trades are all losers. The other three columns are the chance that such a streak happens at least once: in a day of 3 trades, in 100 trades, and in a typical run of 149 trades (the simulation's median), the streak that ends accounts. All are exact, from your win rate.
The gain side
goal $2,500 · $150 a winNet of losses it takes more trades: the simulation counts them.
Trade by trade at your win rate, under the firm's rules and your limits.
| Winning trades in a row | Chance in a row | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| 17 wins of $150 | 1 in 785,936 | the first target in one go: the one-day rush |
| 9 wins of $150 | 1 in 1,322 | half of the first target in one go |
Consistency
best day ≤ 20% of the profit for a payout$2,500 × 20%: past it, that day is too big.
At 20%, no single day can carry the goal.
80% of the most allowed: room for smaller days.
From the 2nd payout the firm's limit is 30%.
Already had a big day? Check before you ask for a payoutEnter your best day and your total profit.
10,000 simulated runs to your payout goal
same seed every timeAssumes a fixed stop (−$100) and target (+$150), independent trades at a 45% win rate, the same size every trade, $0 of costs a trade, no slippage; Blue Guardian's rules as published, checked Sep 27, 2026.
What this does not model
Variable R (stops and targets that move) · partial exits · news gaps · slippage · correlated trades · the firm's discretion · taxes.
The same strategy copied onto several accounts shares one outcome: they pass or fail together, so the odds above do not improve. Trading opposite sides across accounts to push one through (“hedged passing”) is prohibited by the firms that state a rule on it, and this planner never suggests it.
These figures treat each account as its own attempt, the best case, with the chance of one attempt from the simulation above. Each account is bought once: resets are not counted.
Left out of this run: the time limit (not published: no deadline is applied). Other rules (news trading, time limits, a minimum profit for a day to count, scaling) are not simulated: read the firm's own page.
Your first payout
DirectFunded from a fresh start, with your numbers: 10,000 runs trade until the first payout can be asked for, the account is lost, or 120 days pass.
- Startday 0
- First payoutday 63
- Second payouton demand
What this stage publishes
- Profit split
- 90%
- Payouts
- on demand
- Profit goal
- $3,000 of profit before the first payout
- Payout cap
- $2,000 a request
- Minimum payout
- $1,000
Every rule this run applies is published for this stage. A day here is a trading day, counted as one day of the firm's own day rules.
Cost to reach your goal
price, resets, fee after passing1.2 attempts on average: $371 for the first, $371 for each of the others
Nine times in ten one of these 2 attempts passes: $371 for the first, then $371 each time
The firm publishes no reset price: each attempt after the first is counted at the full price again, $371.
Ways to size, compared
your plan 10,000 runs · the others 5,000 each| Way to size | Reached | Account lost | Daily limit hit | Median days |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Same size every tradeyour plan as set | 82.0% | 10.9% | 0.0% | 52 |
| Half size near the floorwhen less than a third of the drawdown is left | 81.2% | 5.6% | 0.0% | 52 |
| Half size after 2 lossesback to full size after a win | 76.7% | 6.3% | 0.0% | 60 |
| Build a buffer firsthalf size until up half the drawdown | 61.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 75 |
The same trades, sized four ways. Half size when the floor gets close is the most common advice: it trades a little speed for fewer lost accounts. The best figure of each column is in accent.
If you risked…
your row 10,000 runs · the others 2,000 each| Risk a trade | Reached | Account lost | Median days | Cost to get funded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1% of the drawdown$20 a trade | 0.0% | 0.0% | — | — |
| 2.5% of the drawdown$50 a trade | 44.0% | 0.3% | 92 | $842 |
| 5% of the drawdownyour plan$100 a trade | 82.0% | 10.9% | 52 | $453 |
| 7.5% of the drawdown$150 a trade | 75.1% | 24.3% | 33 | $494 |
| 10% of the drawdown$200 a trade | 62.2% | 37.8% | 25 | $596 |
The same win rate, reward, stops and rules at other sizes of risk: only the risk changes. Your own row is the simulation above; the best figure of each column is in accent.
The drawdown floor
end of dayIt follows your end-of-day best balance, $2,000 below it, and never stops rising.
Every new high raises the line for good: keep a fixed buffer and take profits off the table with payouts.
Rushing against your plan
the same win rate and reward| Measure | Your plan | Rushing |
|---|---|---|
| Risk per trade | 5.0% of the drawdown · $100 | 100% of the drawdown · $2,000 |
| Your limits | on | none |
| Reached | 82.0% | 0.0% |
| Daily limit hit | 0.0% | 97.2% |
| Account lost | 10.9% | 2.8% |
| Expected cost to get funded | $453 · 1.2 accounts bought per pass | $927,500 · about 1 pass in 2,500 accounts |
Rushing sizes each trade so an average day makes the first target in one session ($2,500 in 3 trades, capped here at your whole drawdown: one loss ends the account). Its 20% consistency rule also caps any single day. Same win rate, same reward: only the size and the limits change.
Kelly and the risk of ruin
what the formulas sayKelly = win rate − loss rate ÷ reward = 0.45 − 0.55 ÷ 1.5 = 8.3% a trade, applied here to your real capital, the $2,000 drawdown. Full Kelly grows fastest with deep swings on the way; most traders use a quarter to a half of it. You are at 0.6 Kelly: above half, losing runs get long.
The chance a losing run eats the whole drawdown (20 losses of room) if you traded these numbers without end, on one account.
The real figure for this account: its daily limit and its targets included.
Risk of ruin ≈ e^(−r × U), where U is the losses of room (the drawdown ÷ the risk of one trade) and r solves p · e^(−r × reward) + q · e^(r) = 1 (p the win rate, q the loss rate). Kelly and ruin assume trades of the same size, one after another.
My plan
keep it beside your chart, share it
MY PLAN · Blue Guardian Direct $50K Risk per trade: 5.0% of the $2,000 drawdown ($100) · reward 1.5R · win rate 45% (my estimate) Position: 2 MNQ (20 points stop) Stop for the day: after 2 losses in a row or at −$500 Stop for the day when up: $400 (consistency 20%) The firm ends the day after 13 losses in a row, the account after 20 losses in a row (1 in 2,640 over a typical run) Simulated with these numbers: 82% reach the goal, median 52 days Rules from blueguardian.com, checked Sep 27, 2026 · fundedkeys.com/tools/risk-planner
The card is this plan's share image: posted in Discord, Telegram or X, the link opens this exact plan.
Each run trades your numbers under the account's rules: its daily loss limit, its max drawdown (static, trailing, end of day or locking at the starting balance as the firm states it), its targets, its minimum days and its consistency rule, and under your own limits. A rule the firm does not publish is left out and named. Rules of the accounts are data of Oct 5, 2026. A calculation, not a promise. Check your own days in the consistency calculator
Blue Guardian risk questions, answered from its rules
How much should I risk per trade on Blue Guardian's $100K account?
Risk a share of the $10,000 max drawdown, not of the $100K: that $10,000 is what the Blue Guardian 2 Step Nano $100K can lose before it ends, so it is your real capital. At 5% of it a trade risks $500 (0.5% of the account); 2.5% is $250 and 10% is $1,000. With a 45% win rate and rewards of 1.5R, 82% of 10,000 simulated runs reach the target and 5% lose the account. A calculation, not a promise.
How many losing trades in a row end the day or the account on Blue Guardian's $100K account?
At 5% of the drawdown a trade ($500), 6 losses in a row reach the $3,000 daily loss limit and 20 reach the $10,000 max drawdown. From the starting balance, on a static floor. Over a typical run of 165 trades at a 55% loss rate, a losing streak of 7 or more happens in 69% of runs and one of 10 or more in 17%; a streak of 20 has a 1 in 2,353 chance of happening in such a run.
Does Blue Guardian have a time limit or a consistency rule on the $100K account?
Blue Guardian states no time limit for the Blue Guardian 2 Step Nano $100K. There is no consistency rule. There is no minimum number of trading days.
What does Blue Guardian's $100K account cost to get funded, with retries?
The Blue Guardian 2 Step Nano $100K costs $179 (with code PFK, −25% · list $239). The fee after passing is not published. At the opening plan (5% of the drawdown a trade, 45% wins, 1.5R), 82% of attempts reach the target: 1.2 accounts bought per pass. Counting each retry at $179 (retries at the full price), the expected cost is $218, and $358 covers 2 attempts, enough to be funded nine times in ten.
Rules and sources: Blue Guardian review · Risk planner for every firm · consistency calculator · methodology