BrightFunded risk calculator
Size every trade on the BrightFunded 2-Step Classic $100K from its real capital: the $10,000 max drawdown, not the $100K account. See how many losing trades end the day and the account, then run your plan 10,000 times under BrightFunded's own rules.
Your three numbers
- stop after 2 losses
- stop at −$2,000
Today
BrightFunded 2-Step Bright $100KBefore each trade
BrightFunded 2-Step Bright $100KYour real capital is $8,000, not $100,000: 10 losing trades in a row end your day, 20 end the account. Size every trade so a normal losing streak cannot reach those limits, and stop for the day before the firm stops you.
The loss side
your edge: +0.13R · $50 a trade on averageYour own limits stop you first: after 2 losses in a row, or 5 losses ($2,000).
From the starting balance, on a static floor.
The longest losing streak to expect is worked out once the simulation has run: it needs the length of a typical run.
| Losses in a row | All lose next | In a day | In 100 trades | In a typical run |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 · Your stopends the day by your choice | 30% | 44% | 100% | — |
| 10 · Daily loss limitthe firm ends the day | 0.3% | — | 10% | — |
| 20 · Max drawdownthe account is lost | 1 in 155,864 | — | 1 in 4,213 | — |
“All lose next” is the chance that the coming trades are all losers. The other columns are the chance that such a streak happens at least once: in a day of 3 trades and in 100 trades. The typical run is known once the simulation has run. All are exact, from your win rate.
The gain side
2 phases · $600 a winNet of losses it takes more trades: the simulation counts them.
Trade by trade at your win rate, under the firm's rules and your limits.
| Winning trades in a row | Chance in a row | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| 14 wins of $600 | 1 in 71,618 | the first target in one go: the one-day rush |
| 23 wins of $600 | 1 in 94,648,162 | every phase in one go |
| 7 wins of $600 | 0.4% | half of the first target in one go |
Consistency
10,000 simulated challenges with your numbers
same seed every timeAssumes a fixed stop (−$400) and target (+$600), independent trades at a 45% win rate, the same size every trade, $0 of costs a trade, no slippage; BrightFunded's rules as published, checked Oct 1, 2026.
What this does not model
Variable R (stops and targets that move) · partial exits · news gaps · slippage · correlated trades · the firm's discretion · taxes.
Updating the simulation…
After you pass
Funded accountUpdating the simulation…
Cost to get funded
price, resets, fee after passingUpdating the simulation…
Ways to size, compared
your plan 10,000 runs · the others 5,000 eachUpdating the simulation…
If you risked…
your row 10,000 runs · the others 2,000 eachUpdating the simulation…
The drawdown floor
staticRushing against your plan
the same win rate and rewardUpdating the simulation…
Kelly and the risk of ruin
what the formulas sayKelly = win rate − loss rate ÷ reward = 0.45 − 0.55 ÷ 1.5 = 8.3% a trade, applied here to your real capital, the $8,000 drawdown. Full Kelly grows fastest with deep swings on the way; most traders use a quarter to a half of it. You are at 0.6 Kelly: above half, losing runs get long.
The chance a losing run eats the whole drawdown (20 losses of room) if you traded these numbers without end, on one account.
The real figure for this account: its daily limit, its 2 phases (each a fresh drawdown) and its targets included.
Risk of ruin ≈ e^(−r × U), where U is the losses of room (the drawdown ÷ the risk of one trade) and r solves p · e^(−r × reward) + q · e^(r) = 1 (p the win rate, q the loss rate). Kelly and ruin assume trades of the same size, one after another.
My plan
keep it beside your chart, share it
MY PLAN · BrightFunded 2-Step Bright $100K Risk per trade: 5.0% of the $8,000 drawdown ($400) · reward 1.5R · win rate 45% (my estimate) Position: 2.66 lots EUR/USD (15 pip stop) Stop for the day: after 2 losses in a row or at −$2,000 Stop for the day when up: no cap The firm ends the day after 10 losses in a row, the account after 20 losses in a row Simulated with these numbers: still computing Rules from brightfunded.com, checked Oct 1, 2026 · fundedkeys.com/tools/risk-planner
The card is this plan's share image: posted in Discord, Telegram or X, the link opens this exact plan.
Each run trades your numbers under the account's rules: its daily loss limit, its max drawdown (static, trailing, end of day or locking at the starting balance as the firm states it), its targets, its minimum days and its consistency rule, and under your own limits. A rule the firm does not publish is left out and named. Rules of the accounts are data of Oct 5, 2026. A calculation, not a promise. Check your own days in the consistency calculator